Tories are ‘gifting’ Runcorn to Reform, Labour says, as Badenoch claims dangerous native election consequence received’t be on account of her – UK politics reside | Politics
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Labour says Tories are ‘gifting’ Runcorn byelection to Reform as Badenoch says dangerous lead to elections received’t be right down to her
Good morning. There are two days left till the native elections in England and, conveniently maybe for Labour campaigners, the federal government’s major announcement is a few plan to cease intercourse offenders claiming asylum within the UK. Rajeev Syal has the small print right here.
The federal government is asserting this now as a result of it’s going to change the regulation by way of an modification to the border safety, asylum and immigration invoice, which has already completed its committee stage within the Commons and can quickly get its report stage (the final likelihood for an modification earlier than the invoice goes to the Lords). Immigration coverage isn’t a matter for native authorities, however Labour will nonetheless be hoping that at present’s headlines may be at the very least marginally useful as folks take into consideration learn how to vote.
With the Conservatives anticipated to lose round 500 council seats, in response to one forecast, these ought to be troublesome elections for Kemi Badenoch. However she received’t be taking it personally, she advised BBC Breakfast this morning in an interview. Requested if a foul consequence could be a vote on her personal “private reputation as chief”, Badenoch replied:
No, I don’t. We had a historic defeat final yr, and it’s going to take a while for us to get again on monitor. I’m working to rebuild public belief, letting the nation know that the Conservative occasion is underneath new management. However as we noticed with earlier oppositions, it took 14 years, 13 years and 18 years to return again. I’ve solely been chief for six months. It’s going to take some time to repair the issues which we had from final yr.
There’s additionally a byelection on Thursday, in Runcorn and Helsby, the place Labour had a majority of just about 15,000 on the final election. The constituency is counting in a single day, which implies that on Friday morning, when loads of the native election outcomes received’t but be in (many councils depend on the Friday, not in a single day, as a result of it’s simpler), the election night time narrative can be decided largely by the Runcorn consequence. Reform UK hope they will win, and that may be a formidable present of energy (regardless that events that pull off superb byelection victories don’t usually carry out so properly at common elections). Given what has occurred to the Westminster expectations thermometer, even a slender Labour win could be a great consequence for Keir Starmer.
And the Conservatives? In line with Labour, they’ve given up completely within the seat. That is what Ellie Reeves, Labour’s chair, advised HuffPost UK.
The Tories aren’t doing something. [Tory MP] Esther McVey principally mentioned the Tories ought to sit it out and let Reform win, and we’re seeing that on the bottom.
They’re not doing any work on the bottom in any respect, it appears to be like like they’re simply gifting it to Reform.
Reeves, in fact, has acquired an incentive to maximise the ‘Hold Reform out’ vote in Runcorn. However that doesn’t imply she’s unsuitable, and it will be stunning if she is. The Tories wrote off their probabilities on this seat a while in the past, and it will make sense for them to deploy marketing campaign assets elsewhere.
Right here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Keir Starmer chairs cupboard.
Morning: Ed Davey, the Lib Dem chief, is campaigning in East Anglia.
10am: Comedy business figures, together with the podcaster Matt Forde, give proof to the Commons tradition committee in regards to the state of reside comedy.
2.20pm: Jack Thorne, creater of the Netflix present Adolescence, and Emily Feller, its co-executive producer, give proof to the Commons girls and equalities committee on misogyny amongst younger males and boys.
2.30pm: Andy Burnham, Higher Manchester mayor, and Kim McGuinness, North East mayor, give proof to the Commons enterprise committee about industrial technique.
Afternoon: Kemi Badenoch is campaigning within the south-west of England.
Afternoon: Nigel Farage, the Reform UK chief, is campaigning in Scunthorpe with Andrea Jenkyns, the occasion’s candidate for Higher Lincolnshire mayor.
If you wish to contact me, please put up a message under the road when feedback are open (usually between 10am and 3pm in the intervening time), or message me on social media. I can’t learn all of the messages BTL, however for those who put “Andrew” in a message aimed toward me, I’m extra more likely to see it as a result of I seek for posts containing that phrase.
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Key occasions
Badenoch says being unpopular is section for Tories that ‘must be acquired by way of’, as she guidelines out resigning if election outcomes horrible
Voters are “drained” of the Conservative occasion altering chief, Kemi Badenoch has mentioned.
In an interview with Matt Chorley for Radio 5 Dwell, being broadcast from 2pm at present, Badenoch made the argument as she dominated out resigning nevertheless dangerous the outcomes of the native elections are for her occasion.
In an interview this morning Badenoch mentioned {that a} dangerous consequence wouldn’t be her fault. (See 9.23am.) Increasing on that argument, requested if she would contemplate resigning within the occasion of a horrible consequence, she replied:
No, as a result of that is one thing that we have now mentioned must be acquired by way of. We’ve acquired to get by way of this preliminary interval the place the general public rejected Conservatism. Final yr, they voted no matter they may to get Conservatives out. We now have a job to do to repair the model.
Anybody who thinks that that is an in a single day job and that altering chief but once more is the answer isn’t paying consideration. The general public are fairly bored with watching us change chief.
In her interview Badenoch additionally mentioned she want to see a statue of Margaret Thatcher erected in Parliament Sq..
And he or she barely revised her view on sandwiches. Final yr she made the headlines when she mentioned didn’t like them as a result of they weren’t “actual meals”. Right now she mentioned could be make an exception “if a sandwich makes an effort, – like a burger”.
Sarwar urges Scottish commerce unionists to not abandon religion in Labour
Severin Carrell
Severin Carrell is the Guardian’s Scotland editor.
Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour chief, has appeared to plead with Scottish commerce unionists to proceed supporting Labour, urging them to “always remember” solely his occasion may ship the rights and reforms they wished.
In an at occasions awkward speech to this yr’s Scottish TUC congress in Dundee, typically talking off script, Sarwar framed the UK authorities’s insurance policies on employees’ rights, the take-over of British Metal, the rise in minimal pay and a £200m funding supply for Grangemouth as ones designed by Labour in alliance with commerce unions.
These insurance policies, he mentioned, have been “solely doable as a result of this labour motion helped elect a Labour authorities”.
The choice was the chaos and regressive assaults on the poorest from the Conservatives, he mentioned, earlier than switching gear to implicitly warn delegates rejecting Labour could be counterproductive. Commerce unionists had a “obligation” to again the occasion, he mentioned.
No longer everybody on this room will agree with each motion of a Labour authorities, however folks on this room will perceive that you just solely get to make totally different selections when you have a Labour authorities.
And naturally, folks on this room have an obligation to carry a Labour authorities to account, however additionally they have an obligation to work with a Labour authorities to verify they advancing the reason for working folks and that’s the elementary function of our commerce union motion.
Going through a steep decline in polling assist because the common election, Sarwar and senior Scottish Labour figures are making conspicuous efforts to court docket enterprise leaders and buyers, shifting the occasion into centrist, business-friendly territory.
However addressing the STUC, he typically used the phrase “we” to recommend Labour and the union motion have been one, pledging Labour “will put excessive talent, excessive pay, unionised jobs employees right here in Scotland first”, with commerce unionists serving to to jot down the occasion’s 2026 manifesto.
Delegates largely sat stoney-faced and undemonstrative as he spoke, many listening with their arms folded, earlier than giving his speech well mannered applause – a muted response skilled by John Swinney, the primary minister and Scottish Nationwide occasion chief, on Monday.
MCB criticises Labour for not doing extra to forestall ‘slaughter’ of Palestinians, highlighting distinction with Ukraine coverage
Ben Quinn
Ben Quinn is a senior Guardian reporter.
Keir Starmer is being urged at present to finish UK arms exports to Israel and recognise an unbiased state of Palestine, in a letter signed by lots of of organisations starting from marketing campaign teams to Islamic societies and mosques.
The letter, which is being hand delivered at present to Downing Road by the Muslim Council of Britain, the UK’s largest Muslim umbrella group, with greater than 500 affiliated members together with mosques, colleges and charitable associations, comes as a reminder of the persevering with political stress on Labour over Gaza within the week of native and mayoral elections. It says:
For the previous 18 months, we have now seen the indiscriminate slaughter of Palestinians every day and located little or no assist from the federal government to take sensible steps to forestall this.
What makes this a lot worse is the direct comparability with how Ukraine is being supported towards Russian aggression.
Though the 2 conflicts have their distinctive options, the Palestinian civilians being killed of their tens of hundreds aren’t any much less human and no much less deserving of the best to self-determination and security.
The letter requires the facilitation of fast humanitarian assist to Gaza, a cessation of UK arms exports to the Israeli authorities and the return of all hostages, “together with Palestinian prisoners, particularly girls and youngsters held with out trial for years on finish”.
Successive UK governments have, for greater than a decade, had a coverage of “non-engagement” with the MCB, based mostly on claims that the organisation isn’t sufficiently consultant of the muslim group and that allegations that senior figures endorsed extremist positions previously.
Labour’s vote share amongst British Muslims fell considerably between 2019 and 2024 amid anger in some communities over the occasion’s stance on Gaza.
Starmer not anticipated to marketing campaign in Hamilton byelection in Scotland, simply as he is missed Runcorn, says Anas Sarwar
Severin Carrell
Severin Carrell is the Guardian’s Scotland editor.
Keir Starmer isn’t anticipated to marketing campaign within the Hamilton byelection, a vital contest for Scottish Labour which takes place in early June, Anas Sarwar has confirmed.
The Scottish Labour chief mentioned Starmer is “understandably centered on the massive problem we face round nationwide safety, [and] round delivering the programme of a UK Labour authorities.” Talking on the Scottish TUC convention in Dundee, he mentioned:
I wouldn’t count on Keir to be campaigning within the byelection. That’s to not say he received’t, however I’m not anticipating Kier to marketing campaign within the byelection.
The prime minister was not campaigning within the Westminster byelection in Runcorn, for a similar motive, Sarwar mentioned. Some pundits count on Nigel Farage, the Reform UK chief, to marketing campaign in Hamilton, including to Scottish Labour’s discomfort.
Labour’s standing in Scotland has plummeted because the UK authorities started reducing winter gasoline advantages, elevating nationwide insurance coverage prices and Starmer’s bills row, with its assist as little as 19% in Holyrood polling.
That makes the Scottish Nationwide occasion favorite to retain the Holyrood seat Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse on 5 June, left vacant by the sudden loss of life of the SNP incumbent, Christina McKelvie.
In placing distinction, Labour humiliated the SNP within the byelection contest for the adjoining Westminster seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West in October 2023, drastically lifting Sarwar’s confidence that Labour may defeat the SNP in subsequent yr’s Holyrood elections.
Sarwar insists he stays assured of victory subsequent yr.
I’ll be on the stump campaigning for a Labour win. I’m the candidate for first minister subsequent yr. I’m the one that desires to take away the SNP from authorities.
Subsequent yr, we’ve acquired to show to folks that for all Nigel Farage may need to come right here along with his straightforward solutions and create a little bit of a circus, the fact is a vote for Reform solely helps the SNP. If you wish to do away with the SNP, solely Scottish Labour can beat them.
There are two pressing questions within the Commons at present after 12.30pm, on the terrorism assault in Kashmir and on the ‘kill MP’ remark from the Irish band Kneecap, adopted by a ministerial assertion on the go to yesterday by Mohammad Mustafa, prime minister of the Palestinian authority.
UK’s first trans choose appeals to European court docket of human rights over supreme court docket ruling
Britain’s first transgender choose is taking the UK to the European court docket of human rights over the supreme court docket’s ruling on organic intercourse, Libby Brooks experiences.
Who is predicted to win Runcorn and Helsby byelection?
Labour is saying that the Tories have “gifted” the Runcorn and Helsby byelection to Reform UK. (See 9.23am) However a win for Nigel Farage’s occasion isn’t inevitable.
There have been two polls within the constituency. Lord Ashcroft revealed another than a month in the past suggesting that Reform was more likely to beat Labour by 40% to 35%, weighted by probability to vote. A number of days later Discover Out Now revealed one suggesting Reform was forward by three factors (36%, to Labour’s 33%).
Byelection polls are much less dependable than nationwide polls, that are at all times a helpful information to voting traits, however not at all times a dependable predictor of outcomes. Nevertheless, betting firms additionally count on Reform to win.
And but – it isn’t all misplaced for Labour. Ben Walker, the New Statesman information skilled who co-founded the Britain Elects web site, runs an election forecasting mannequin, Britain Predicts, which outperformed all different fashions on the 2024 election. He has crunched the numbers and, in a report yesterday, he mentioned his mannequin at present has Labour beating Reform by 36% to 35%.
However there may be loads of uncertainty, he says.
Reform is banking on voters with an unreliable historical past of voting. The polls put them on high proper now, partially as a result of some conventional voters will keep residence (Labour appears to be like like “extra of the identical” than “an actual change” as Extra in Frequent polling finds); and partially as a result of conventional non-voters are psyched up by Farage. The issue for the standard events is these new non-voters lean Reform. On the voter sheets they’re typically written off as not voting.
This polling is backed up partially by council by-elections. However in a excessive threat sport of constituency contest, it’s a reliance on the unreliable.
Walker, who lives simply exterior the constituency, additionally says some Tories might vote Labour to maintain Reform out.
Nationally, Tory voters in Labour vs Reform fights are inclined to lean Reform. However once you management for affluence it isn’t so easy. Wealthy Conservative voters are extra break up on the query. I hear of former Conservative councillors within the locale conceding that they’ll vote Labour for the primary time. It is smart for Labour to provide the technique a go.
UPDATE: Tom Baldwin, a former Labour spin physician, advised an analogous story in his Occasions column yesterday. He mentioned:
Labour’s strategists imagine that they will lure such progressive or centrist deserters again into the fold if there’s a actual prospect of Reform or the Tories successful. The Runcorn byelection represents a primary take a look at of this. And, up to some extent, such tactical voting may come into play. As an example, after I walked round one of many constituency’s extra well-to-do areas final week, a girl advised me she was backing Labour for the primary time due to what the reputational harm of getting a Reform MP “may imply for our property costs”.
Wales not on course to satisfy well being, local weather and nature targets, says its future generations commissioner
Steven Morris
Steven Morris is a Guardian reporter overlaying the west of England and Wales.
The long run generations commissioner for Wales, Derek Walker, has warned that the nation isn’t on course to satisfy well being, local weather and nature targets.
Walker is main a future generations motion summit on the Nationwide Museum Cardiff, which marks the tenth anniversary of the Future Generations Act, which was a world first.
He has produced 50 suggestions on local weather and nature, tradition and the Welsh language, the well-being economic system and well being that he says are wanted to guard, assist and make life higher for future generations.
Walker mentioned:
Wales has led the way in which for the previous 10 years with our collective imaginative and prescient for a Cymru that’s defending future generations, however we’re not on course to satisfy our well being, local weather and nature targets that can get us there.
Future generations will reside with the implications of each determination we take to enhance folks’s lives. We now have to work quick to scale up the great examples of change, and create extra advantages for everyone as we decarbonise, restore nature, enhance public well being and create native jobs and an economic system that works for folks and planet.
His suggestions embody:
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Extra involvement of individuals in shaping insurance policies and constructing belief, together with by way of motion like a Neighborhood Proper to Purchase Act to empower communities to take possession of valued native buildings, land, and group property, similar to theatres and wind farms.
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A protracted-term plan to enhance Wales’ meals safety and guarantee equal entry to native, inexpensive, wholesome and sustainable diets.
Beneath the Future Generations Act, the commissioner is appointed to problem the Welsh authorities “to make selections in the most effective pursuits of people that aren’t born but”.
Badenoch suggests Tories would oppose plans to increase sugar tax, saying she was opposed when her occasion first launched it
This morning the Occasions has splashed on the information that ministers are planning to increase the suger tax. Of their story, Max Kendix and Chris Smyth say:
Milkshakes and lattes are set to be hit by a sugar tax for the primary time as Labour strikes to increase the levy to lots of extra comfortable drinks together with Pepsi and Ribena.
Pre-packaged milkshakes and coffees can be lined by the levy, ministers signalled on Monday, ending an exemption they described as an anomaly. The current legal guidelines have primarily affected fizzy drinks.
In a transfer that goes additional than anticipated, ministers mentioned it was time to be extra formidable on unhealthy drinks, asserting that they will even decrease the sugar content material threshold at which the tax applies, catching a few of Britain’s best-known manufacturers and grocery store merchandise which had modified recipes to keep away from the earlier levy.
Tax charges on sugary drinks will even rise 27 per cent over the parliament to make up for a freeze since 2018, ministers confirmed.
Requested about this in her interview on BBC Breakfast, Kemi Badenoch mentioned that she was not eager on the sugar tax anyway, even the unique model launched by her occasion. She mentioned:
I wasn’t a fan of it when this regulation was introduced in. It really first got here in underneath the Conservatives. I believed it was a bit an excessive amount of nanny state.
However we have now a sugar tax already. My fear is that the federal government doesn’t have any plans, didn’t have any technique, and they also’re simply in search of what else they will tax.
Taxing isn’t the way in which to get the economic system rising. Simply merely going again for increasingly taxes at a time when companies are closing down, they’re not hiring – Labour has been making the unsuitable selections on the economic system throughout the border.
I don’t suppose that that is going to make a lot of a further distinction. I believe the regulation of diminishing returns tends to use once you maintain simply doing the identical factor many times and anticipating outsized returns.
Readout from Starmer’s assembly with Palestinian authority PM Mohammad Mustafa
With reference to Gaza, I used to be requested yesterday if I may put up the Downing Road readout of Keir Starmer’s talks yesterday afternoon with Mohammad Mustafa, prime minister of the Palestinian authority. Right here it’s. A No 10 spokesperson mentioned:
The prime minister started by expressing his honest condolences for the appalling lack of life in Gaza. He mentioned that the UK doesn’t assist the resumption in hostilities, that are in no person’s pursuits. He added that the UK will proceed to press for a return to the ceasefire as a primary step to a long-lasting peace, and reiterated that the return of humanitarian assist into Gaza is vital.
He additionally mentioned that we should not lose sight of the state of affairs within the West Financial institution, the place illegal settlement and violence is of deep concern.
Discussing the Arab Plan for Gaza, the prime minister shared the UK’s assist for the Palestinian authority’s reform programme, which he mentioned is vital. The leaders agreed {that a} strategic political framework can be vital as a part of the implementation of a two-state resolution, and that Hamas should have no function in Gaza’s governance.
They each agreed that the UK would proceed to work carefully with the Palestinian authority and regional companions to discover a constructive method ahead, and ship lasting peace and safety for Israelis and Palestinians alike.
Kneecap apologise to households of murdered MPs over ‘useless Tory’ feedback
Kneecap, the Irish language rap group from Belfast, have apologised to the households of murdered MPs David Amess and Jo Cox after footage emerged during which the Irish-language rappers purportedly name for politicians to be killed, Jamie Grierson experiences.
Right here is an extract from the Kneecap assertion, which has been posted on Bluesky.
Allow us to be unequivocal: we don’t, and have by no means, supported Hamas or Hezbollah. We condemn all assaults on civilians, at all times. It’s by no means okay. We all know this greater than anybody, given our nation’s historical past.
We additionally reject any suggestion that we might search to incite violence towards any MP or particular person. Ever. An extract of footage, intentionally taken out of all context, is now being exploited and weaponised, as if it have been a name to motion.
This distortion isn’t solely absurd – it’s a clear effort to derail the true dialog.
All two million Palestinian folks in Gaza are at present being starved to loss of life by Israel.
At the very least 20,000 kids in Gaza have been killed. The British authorities continues to produce arms to Israel, even after scores of NHS medical doctors warned Keir Starmer in August that kids have been being systematically executed with sniper pictures to the top.
Yvette Cooper says UK centered on ‘resilience’, in response to questions on large energy minimize in Spain and Portugal
Yvette Cooper, the house secretary, was doing a media spherical this morning to debate the international intercourse offenders announcement. Requested in regards to the energy cuts in Spain and Portugal, and whether or not the UK could possibly be affected in the identical method, she advised Sky Information the UK has a “continued method” to “resilience” and “safety points”. She mentioned:
We’ve been trying, as a part of wider safety opinions throughout the nation, how we cope with each resilience and likewise totally different sorts of challenges and threats.
A few of which might be the standard safety challenges, a few of which might be the sorts of resilience – issues that we’re speaking about in Spain and Portugal – and we clearly assist them and the governments there within the work that they’re doing.
Labour says Tories are ‘gifting’ Runcorn byelection to Reform as Badenoch says dangerous lead to elections received’t be right down to her
Good morning. There are two days left till the native elections in England and, conveniently maybe for Labour campaigners, the federal government’s major announcement is a few plan to cease intercourse offenders claiming asylum within the UK. Rajeev Syal has the small print right here.
The federal government is asserting this now as a result of it’s going to change the regulation by way of an modification to the border safety, asylum and immigration invoice, which has already completed its committee stage within the Commons and can quickly get its report stage (the final likelihood for an modification earlier than the invoice goes to the Lords). Immigration coverage isn’t a matter for native authorities, however Labour will nonetheless be hoping that at present’s headlines may be at the very least marginally useful as folks take into consideration learn how to vote.
With the Conservatives anticipated to lose round 500 council seats, in response to one forecast, these ought to be troublesome elections for Kemi Badenoch. However she received’t be taking it personally, she advised BBC Breakfast this morning in an interview. Requested if a foul consequence could be a vote on her personal “private reputation as chief”, Badenoch replied:
No, I don’t. We had a historic defeat final yr, and it’s going to take a while for us to get again on monitor. I’m working to rebuild public belief, letting the nation know that the Conservative occasion is underneath new management. However as we noticed with earlier oppositions, it took 14 years, 13 years and 18 years to return again. I’ve solely been chief for six months. It’s going to take some time to repair the issues which we had from final yr.
There’s additionally a byelection on Thursday, in Runcorn and Helsby, the place Labour had a majority of just about 15,000 on the final election. The constituency is counting in a single day, which implies that on Friday morning, when loads of the native election outcomes received’t but be in (many councils depend on the Friday, not in a single day, as a result of it’s simpler), the election night time narrative can be decided largely by the Runcorn consequence. Reform UK hope they will win, and that may be a formidable present of energy (regardless that events that pull off superb byelection victories don’t usually carry out so properly at common elections). Given what has occurred to the Westminster expectations thermometer, even a slender Labour win could be a great consequence for Keir Starmer.
And the Conservatives? In line with Labour, they’ve given up completely within the seat. That is what Ellie Reeves, Labour’s chair, advised HuffPost UK.
The Tories aren’t doing something. [Tory MP] Esther McVey principally mentioned the Tories ought to sit it out and let Reform win, and we’re seeing that on the bottom.
They’re not doing any work on the bottom in any respect, it appears to be like like they’re simply gifting it to Reform.
Reeves, in fact, has acquired an incentive to maximise the ‘Hold Reform out’ vote in Runcorn. However that doesn’t imply she’s unsuitable, and it will be stunning if she is. The Tories wrote off their probabilities on this seat a while in the past, and it will make sense for them to deploy marketing campaign assets elsewhere.
Right here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Keir Starmer chairs cupboard.
Morning: Ed Davey, the Lib Dem chief, is campaigning in East Anglia.
10am: Comedy business figures, together with the podcaster Matt Forde, give proof to the Commons tradition committee in regards to the state of reside comedy.
2.20pm: Jack Thorne, creater of the Netflix present Adolescence, and Emily Feller, its co-executive producer, give proof to the Commons girls and equalities committee on misogyny amongst younger males and boys.
2.30pm: Andy Burnham, Higher Manchester mayor, and Kim McGuinness, North East mayor, give proof to the Commons enterprise committee about industrial technique.
Afternoon: Kemi Badenoch is campaigning within the south-west of England.
Afternoon: Nigel Farage, the Reform UK chief, is campaigning in Scunthorpe with Andrea Jenkyns, the occasion’s candidate for Higher Lincolnshire mayor.
If you wish to contact me, please put up a message under the road when feedback are open (usually between 10am and 3pm in the intervening time), or message me on social media. I can’t learn all of the messages BTL, however for those who put “Andrew” in a message aimed toward me, I’m extra more likely to see it as a result of I seek for posts containing that phrase.
If you wish to flag one thing up urgently, it’s best to make use of social media. You possibly can attain me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X however particular person Guardian journalists are there, I nonetheless have my account, and for those who message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I’ll see it and reply if vital.
I discover it very useful when readers level out errors, even minor typos. No error is simply too small to appropriate. And I discover your questions very fascinating too. I can’t promise to answer to all of them, however I’ll attempt to reply to as many as I can, both BTL or generally within the weblog.
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